The Australian reports (paywalled) on an analysis of Newspolls over the past two months, and its not looking good for Liberal leader Turnbull. The Coalition has suffered a 6 per cent swing against it in two-party-preferred terms in Queensland, a 7.3 swing in Western Australia and 3.6 per cent deterioration in NSW. This is enough to lose the election.
Such a swing could see the Turnbull government losing 10 seats in NSW, six in Queensland and three in Western Australia, with a significant slump in support in the key election battlegrounds.
The poll also shows that in his home state of NSW, satisfaction with Malcolm Turnbull has fallen by 18 points since Christmas and is now lower than Tony Abbott’s 37 per cent just before he was dumped.
Compared with Mr Abbott’s 2013 election victory, the coalition has lost ground to the Bill Shorten’s Labor in every state, and support has especially deteriorated over the past eight weeks. Satisfaction with Mr Turnbull’s performance is worst in South Australia and NSW, where more than half the voters are dissatisfied with his performance. His satisfaction level of 36 per cent in NSW has plunged by 18 points since Christmas. Western Australia is the only state where his satisfaction is higher than 40 per cent.
Shorten’s standing has improved in all states, his satisfaction rating up between four and six points; the aggregated poll shows his disapproval remains at 50 per cent or higher in every state.
Hard to accept, but unless he can turn things around soon, it looks very much like the “Great Communicator” Turnbull has a good chance of losing this one. I hope not, but if he does, there’s a big bunch of Abbott supporters waiting to say “I told you so”.