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Polling analysis bad news for Malcolm Turnbull

The Australian reports (paywalled) on an analysis of Newspolls over the past two months, and its not looking good for Liberal leader Turnbull. The Coalition has suffered a 6 per cent swing against it in two-party-preferred terms in Queensland, a 7.3 swing in Western Australia and 3.6 per cent deterioration in NSW. This is enough to lose the election.

Such a swing could see the Turnbull government losing 10 seats in NSW, six in Queensland and three in Western Australia, with a significant slump in support in the key election battlegrounds.

The poll also shows that in his home state of NSW, satisfaction with Malcolm Turnbull has fallen by 18 points since Christmas and is now lower than Tony Abbott’s 37 per cent just before he was dumped.

Compared with Mr Abbott’s 2013 election victory, the coalition has lost ground to the Bill Shorten’s Labor in every state, and support has especially deteriorated over the past eight weeks. Satisfaction with Mr Turnbull’s performance is worst in South Australia and NSW, where more than half the voters are dissatisfied with his performance. His satisfaction level of 36 per cent in NSW has plunged by 18 points since Christmas. Western Australia is the only state where his satisfaction is higher than 40 per cent.

Shorten’s standing has improved in all states, his satisfaction rating up between four and six points; the aggregated poll shows his disapproval ­remains at 50 per cent or higher in every state.

Hard to accept, but unless he can turn things around soon, it looks very much like the “Great Communicator” Turnbull has a good chance of losing this one. I hope not, but if he does, there’s a big bunch of Abbott supporters waiting to say “I told you so”.

4 Comments on Polling analysis bad news for Malcolm Turnbull

  1. Actually Red, I disagree with you when you say you hope he doesn’t lose.

    There are two candidates (Australian elections have become increasingly ‘Presidential’ in recent decades, so people are more likely to vote for/against a particular Party Leader than a platform or team) and it doesn’t really make a lot of difference which candidate ‘wins’ because they’re both gigantic clusterfucks who will be horrible, terrible national leaders.

    If Labor wins and destroys the economy (again), it will be the Left that owns it. If Labor wins, the bloodletting in the Liberal Party will be swift and severe. The political careers of Turnbull and his backers (specifically, the 54 traitors you’ve named and shamed at truebluenz) will be over. The ignominy of the backbench followed by removal next election, or the swift death of a resignation and by-election. I don’t think the Party will beg Abbott to return to the leadership, but might ask him back as deputy.

    The same applies in the US. If the Dem wins (I still don’t think it will be Clinton) and the economy tanks, they will own it and it will destroy the Democrats for a generation. Trump and his brownshirts and alt-right racists & NAZIs, and the RINOs who backed him will be dead and Conservatives will be in the ascendency, to re-take the Presidency in 2020.

    In Australia, if Turnbull wins it destroys the Conservative wing of the Liberal Party for a generation. He will be a horrible, awful Prime Minister but because he will have won election, Conservatives will have to swallow a dead rat and support him.

    In the US if Trump wins (heaven forbid), the GOP will become the Trump Party.

    In both Australia and the US, salvation lies in the Senate. If Australia elects Independents to the Senate (as they did last time) it won’t matter which Fabian Socialist wins the Prime Ministership because the Indies will block their legislative agenda. Especially if the Australian Liberty Alliance can win enough seats to be impactful. In the US, the GOP proved when Harry Reid ran the Senate that a small number can stop a horrible agenda. For most of his time Reid was too afraid to even bring bills to the floor because he knew they’d either be defeated or filibustered. With just a couple of additional Conservatives to back Cruz, Lee and Paul, the Conservatives could block both Reid and that treacherous buffoon McConnell.

    Salvation lies in the Senate my friend, but (paradoxically) destruction lies in the Liberals winning the coming election.

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    • Not much I can disagree with there Gantt, I generally agree with the idea that the parties that exist in supposed opposition to the left are finished (by their own cowardice) and need to be overhauled.

      As to my comment that I hope the Coalition wins, I should say I had just watched Q and A and the idiocy of the left wing panelists (Terri Butler et al) and the similarly left wing questioners in the audience was utterly appalling.

      Also on the panel was Green’s leader Richard Di Natale who is so bad he makes Labour look good. You just look at these people and their supporters and think “God God”..!

      If they get power again, there is no doubt your predictions of a political and economic holocaust will come true. I agree with you it has to happen. But man, those leftists are so dumb.

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      • Absolutely agree – Richard di Natale is so crazy, he makes Sarah Hanson-Young look sane!

        I honestly don’t know how you manage to sit through Q&A without hurling your computer out the window. It’s the most blatant example of agit-prop on the ABC, which is all agit-prop, all the time.

        Bill Shorten has said he won’t go to the Greens for a coalition if neither Labor or the Libs get enough seats to win government, because even he knows the Greens are electoral poison (as well as being bat-shit crazy). But, like that other union hack leader Gillard, when push comes to shove of course he will do a deal with the Greens. And it will be one that will make every decent person’s toes curl.

        But again, salvation lies in the Senate. Unlike one-party, unicameral communist dictatorship New Zealand, legislation in Australia must pass both the House and the Senate. Part of what brought Abbott undone was his inability to get his budget passed, because of “obstructionism” in the Senate. If the Australian Liberty Alliance can put on a good show and grab a few seats, they might just save Australia yet … regardless of which Fabian Socialist becomes Prime Minister.

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  2. “I honestly don’t know how you manage to sit through Q&A without hurling your computer out the window. ”

    Its not easy. Commies stealing taxpayer money to promote their poisonous ideas, and it seems nobody can stop them.

    I think the ALA are the only ones saying they will try.

    Like

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